Pilot-first launch.
PMF before ARR.
A two-minute version of Marco's first GTM proposal at Zunou. The full 25-minute writeup, with derivations and sensitivity tables, sits at the canonical URL.
Knowledge teams have stopped tolerating tool fragmentation. The architecture Zunou has shipped (MIT-aligned tool-based selective retrieval, 136+ production tools, Voice Agent on Realtime API in 18 languages, autonomous Relays) is the right shape for the moment. The launch problem is distribution + density, not product readiness. The recommendation is pilot-first community-led launch in Tokyo: TAI in end July / early Aug 2026 (Ilya-introduced), then layer in AI Tinkerers + Venture Café + one more. Hybrid venue sponsorship pays for actual conversion, not just seats. Spaces Event-Spaces is the Zoom-playbook viral surface alongside it. Pre-committed stage-gate Feb 2027: ≥4 of 6 PMF criteria → fuel; ≤2 → pivot; 3 → extend 60 days. Year-1 ARR ambition is ¥30M+, locked after month-3 paid signal, not before. PMF first. ARR last.
01 · The product is real
Three facts that anchor everything below.
Tool-based selective retrieval. 136+ production tools. ~100× token reduction vs context-stuffing. Built before the MIT paper that validated it.
Sub-second, on OpenAI's Realtime API. Shipped, not roadmap.
Cross-tool actions without prompting. The product is already deeper than what zunou.ai shows publicly.
02 · The horizon · three windows
Year one runs in three phases. The ARR number locks at the end, not the beginning.
Magic-number completion. Cohort retention. Qualitative "would be very disappointed" signal.
First paying logos. Pro $19 vs Business $39 preference. Early churn.
+communities. +events. +content / PR. MoM acceleration. ARR number locks here.
03 · The launch shape
TAI · end July / early Aug 2026 (Ilya-introduced). 4,000+ Tokyo AI builders. Open membership, weekly events. Pilot deep first; learn; double into AI Tinkerers Ginza, Venture Café Toranomon, and one more. Reachable Tokyo population across 13 prioritized communities: 6,500 individuals.
Pre-committed, six months after Phase 1 launch. ≥4 of 6 PMF criteria → fuel. ≤2 → pivot. 3 → extend 60 days. Removes the founder-bias trap of "let's give it three more months" indefinitely.
04 · Year-1 ambition
¥30M+ ARR is the ambition we're working toward. The beachhead (TAI + a few communities) covers months 1–2 of PMF learning. The year-1 number compounds from parallel tracks layered on top: more communities, Spaces-powered large events (IVS-class), content + PR, partnerships.
The specific ARR number locks after month-3 paid signal, not before. Faking the forecast earlier would let founder-bias replace data.
- · The launch shape — pilot-first (recommended) or synchronized 4-community?
- · The year-1 framing — ¥30M+ as the ambition, locked after paid signal?
- · The hybrid venue-sponsorship model — flat fee + per-user-join bonus?
- · Which 3 capabilities the TAI demo leads with, and which we hold back?
- · The 5 / 1 / 3-in-14-days magic number is a working hypothesis. Real activation surfaces (Daily Debrief, Relays, Spaces joins) may substitute.
- · The 10% personal-conversion rate from Event-Spaces is the investor-doc number. Tokyo-specific actual is TBD.
- · Whether parallel tracks compound or run linearly is the biggest unknown. Year-1 ambition assumes compounding.
- · Phase 0 capacity is plausible-not-committed. What can the team realistically absorb?
The next move
Vote on the 12 open decisions.
Push back where the inputs feel wrong.
This is a discussion document, not a finished plan. The full version below is the show-your-work version, with derivations, the community attack list, sensitivity tables, and references. Disagree with specific lines, not the whole shape.